THE 2020 GLOBAL RECESSION: A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND TECHNOLOGY AS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE WITH POPULATION GROWTH AS A CONTROL VARIABLE

Abstract

This study aim the influence of human capital (HCI) and technology (TFP) on economic performance during the 2020 global recession, a period marked by a non-economic shock. The research employed a cross-country panel data analysis on a population of 115 countries using data from the World Bank and the UN. The real GDP per capita growth rate served as the dependent variable, while HCI and TFP were the key independent variables, with population growth as a control variable. The quantitative analysis included classical assumption tests and T and F tests. The findings reveal that while the data was not normally distributed, it passed tests for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and linearity. The regression model showed a negative relationship between both HCI and TFP with economic growth. Specifically, HCI had a significant negative effect on economic growth, while TFP's effect was found to be insignificant. The adjusted R² value of 3.05% indicated that the model's variables only explained a small portion of the variation in economic growth. The study concludes that during the 2020 recession, human capital was negatively and significantly associated with economic performance, whereas technology did not play a significant role. This suggests a potential mismatch in skills or a lag in realizing the benefits of these investments during an unexpected crisis.