THE NEXUS BETWEEN LOGISTICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA: A TIME SERIES PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

This study examines the causal relationship between Indonesia's logistics sector and economic growth during 2000–2020 using time series econometric methods. Logistics volume encompassing sea, railway, and air cargo serves as the logistics indicator, while real GDP represents economic performance. Data underwent logarithmic transformation to ensure stationarity, analyzed through Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality procedures. Results confirm GDP stationarity after first differencing, though logistics volume could not be tested due to uniform distribution. Granger causality establishes significant unidirectional influence from logistics to GDP at 1-2 years lags (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.0066), validating infrastructure-led development patterns. Despite inconclusive cointegration testing, findings underscore logistics' strategic role in national economic expansion. Policy recommendations emphasize infrastructure investment prioritization, logistics data quality enhancement, and future research employing panel data approaches for regional analysis.